College or pro? Decisions loom for FSU signees after this week's MLB Draft
Editor's Note: This is the first installment of a two-part series on the MLB Draft and the impact it could have on Florida State's baseball program. Part I examines how players view the draft and the choices that come with it.
Part II: Wait and see: MLB Draft presents nervous moments for college coaches
Cole Ragans is one of at least five players in Florida State's highly touted 2016 signing class who could have an immediate impact on the program.
He's also one of five players who could become a first- or second-round draft pick, turn down the Seminoles and walk away with at least a $1 million bonus from a major-league franchise.
Decisions. Decisions.
"Either way I go," Ragans said. "I am making a good decision."
Ragans, who starred at Tallahassee's North Florida Christian, won't have to make a hard and fast decision after the MLB First-Year Player Draft begins on Thursday. But if he is selected in the first two rounds, the clock will be ticking on his future.
Here's what he's facing:
Option 1 features FSU and what comes with it. Ragans can stick to his commitment, spend at least three years with his hometown team, play for a passionate fan base and begin his college education.
He also would get a chance to reunite with former high school teammate Cole Sands, who was a 22nd-round pick of the Houston Astros in last year's draft but instead opted to stay with the Seminoles. Sands earned a spot in FSU's starting rotation as a freshman and pitched in last weekend's NCAA Regional.
"I know FSU will help me a lot," Ragans said. "I know it can help me in pro ball and could help me move a lot quicker. I have a teammate already there that I was teammates with for three [or] four years."
Option 2, however, presents a possible quicker route to Major League Baseball as well as instant millionaire status with one stroke of a pen. MLB.com rates Ragans as the No. 49 prospect in the draft, while Baseball America lists him at No. 54.
Obviously, where he is selected will play a major role.
Major-league teams have a slot bonus, which is a pre-determined figured based upon where they're selected in the draft. If Ragans goes 49th to the Chicago White Sox, for example, he's in line for a $1.28 million bonus, according to slot bonus values reported by Baseball America.
However, there can be some wiggle room. Each team has an overall allotment it can spend on all of its draft picks. So if Ragans is drafted by the White Sox and they have money left over from picks they couldn't sign, that's more cash they could throw at Ragans.
"I try not to really think about it, and I focused on my last high school season," Ragans said. "Now that it's over, it's a really tough decision. Either way I go, I think it is going to be awesome.
"It is tough to choose FSU, and it's tough to choose pro ball. I have a lot to think about."
Again, Ragans is one of five FSU signees who have a major choice to make. There's also pitcher Forrest Whitley of Texas and pitcher/third baseman Josh Lowe of Marietta, Ga.
MLB.com rates Whitley as the No. 12 player, while Lowe is 17th. Both are projected to go in the first round, and each could command at least a $2 million bonus.
Lake Minneola (Fla.) star Drew Mendoza, who can play shortstop and third base, is MLB.com's No. 36 prospect, while New Jersey prep star Tyler Mondile, another pitcher, is rated 128th.
"Me and Drew Mendoza and Forrest Whitley have a group chat, and we keep up with each other," Ragans said. "We've talked about it countless times about what to do and how it's a tough decision, and we want to see how the draft plays out.
"None of us are going to sell ourselves short and feel like we're not getting what we want by going to FSU. Because we still feel we can have the time of our lives by trying to win the school's first national championship."
Although the vast majority of first-round picks sign, that's not always the case.
In 2014, left-handed pitcher Brady Aiken was selected with the No. 1 pick out of high school but chose not to sign after a dispute about money and the health of his pitching elbow. One year later, after undergoing Tommy John surgery, he again was taken in the first round and signed with the Cleveland Indians.
Before Aiken, there was pitcher Philip Bickford. He was drafted 10th by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2013 and turned down a reported $2.92 million bonus to stick with Cal State-Fullerton. Bickford then transferred to the College of Southern Nevada and was taken 15th in the 2015 draft.
When MLB teams are evaluating high draft picks, they have to consider their talent, health and potential, but also their "signability." The term refers to the dollar figure it would take for a player to sign with a team.
In 2014, J.J. Schwarz was Baseball America's No. 54 prospect in the nation but was drafted in the 17th round. Schwarz's asking price was considered to be too high, and now he's a sophomore at the University of Florida.
Money clearly isn't everything.
Seminoles junior center fielder Ben DeLuzio turned down at least $681,000 from the Miami Marlins to play in college.
"It's kinda nice when you have options like that," said DeLuzio, who was a third-round pick out of high school. "It's just tough knowing you have to come down to a decision. You are going to disappoint some people, but you have to look at it as you are doing it for your best interest and not the interest of others."
DeLuzio said it comes down to each player making a personal decision that is best for them. He said he chose FSU because he felt the college route would help him mature.
But not every prospect is as interested in higher education.
"College is not necessarily the answer for everybody," ESPN college baseball analyst Kyle Peterson told Warchant.com. "From a social standpoint or interest, it would then make more sense to sign. Everybody has a number. Most people have a number and they say, 'You know what? That's life-changing money for us.'"
Although Peterson was not drafted out of high school, he was taken with the 13th pick of the 1997 Draft by the Milwaukee Brewers, following his junior year at Stanford.
Over the years, Peterson said he has had a number of friends and acquaintances who've watched their sons decide between college or professional baseball.
"If I were [being drafted] today, knowing what I would know now, I'd be going to school regardless," Peterson said. "Take the money out of the equation, it's a very different lifestyle. Personally, I was not ready for it at 18 years old.
"If you put me on the road with adults and enough money, you're going to get yourself in trouble pretty easily. You go to college, it's like 'Life Lite.' You experience so much, but there's a safety net. You sign out of high school, the safety net is there but not quite as much.
"I'm not saying it's the right answer for some. But for my son, yes, it will be his decision ... but I would encourage him to go to college."
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